Chokepoint Vulnerabilities Rewrite the Rules of the International Fuel Trade 

Iran’s influence over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz has transformed the energy security debate, casting fossil fuels rather than renewables as the primary source of vulnerability. For decades, the conventional narrative criticized renewables for their intermittency issues and dependence on weather conditions, whereas technologies such as coal, oil, and gas provided security. The Middle East conflict and protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that handles around 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, have reframed this debate, laying bare the risks associated with fragile fossil fuel supply chains. 

Energy experts and the CEOs of Nordic energy giants Fortum and Statkraft made this point clear at the Eurelectric Power Summit in Helsinki. Kingsmill Bond, energy strategist at Ember, noted that fossil fuels have now become intermittent and uncertain. He argued that batteries make renewables constant because the sun rises every morning, stating that Europe remains far too exposed to the old system and must change quickly. Bond compared the situation to the 1970s oil crises, noting that while nations built expensive nuclear plants that took a decade to complete back then, policymakers today can scale cheap solar, wind, batteries, and electrification. 

The U.S. and Israeli-led war against Iran has rattled global energy markets and triggered widespread inflation fears, putting Asia’s reliance on imported energy at the forefront of the crisis. Supply disruptions also hit hard in Europe and Africa, threatening food security and raising fuel costs. With no imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in sight, the situation prompts many to reflect on global reliance on fossil fuel trade routes. Fortum CEO Markus Rauramo stated that the solution to being dependent on imported carbon-heavy fuels is homegrown clean electricity, though he admitted that shifting a home or business away from gas represents a huge adjustment. This evolving debate comes just a few months after fossil fuel leaders championed the concept of energy addition at the UAE’s annual oil summit. Energy addition refers to developing new technologies in parallel with existing fossil fuels to accommodate new demands from sectors like AI, whereas energy transition refers to transferring completely from one source to another.