Crude Market Outlook Softens as OPEC Downgrades Next Year’s Global Consumption Forecast 

OPEC lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 780,000 barrels per day, marking the third consecutive downward revision in its latest monthly report. The current revision reduces the expected oil demand growth for the year from the previously projected 970,000 barrels per day. The producer group continues to see a smaller impact on global energy consumption from the Iran war than other prominent market forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency. Despite the immediate downgrade, OPEC suggests the world economy may perform better in the remaining months of the year, leading the group to raise its oil demand growth forecast for 2027 by 210,000 barrels per day to a new estimate of 1.94 million barrels per day. 

The war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical maritime oil routes in the world, for months, which halted millions of barrels of Middle East oil output. Production is finally starting to recover following an interim peace agreement between Iran and the United States, although renewed military strikes continue to reignite concerns over global shipping safety. OPEC noted on its website that global economic growth dynamics in the first half of 2026 remained broadly resilient, adding that potential moderations in geopolitical tensions may provide some economic upside in the second half of the year if energy markets and global trade flows stabilize further. 

The wider OPEC+ coalition, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and external allies like Russia, originally agreed to resume output increases from April, but the physical closure of the Strait of Hormuz made it impossible for members to lift production to their agreed quota levels. According to secondary sources that monitoring groups use to track production, OPEC+ crude output averaged 36.28 million barrels per day in June, rising by about 3 million barrels per day from May as Gulf members began restarting operations halted by the conflict. The historical May baseline data includes production figures from the United Arab Emirates, which formally left OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance on May 1.